I would like to summarize the recent world economic situation by saying that “each country is striving to change its international role based on its own geopolitical advantages”.
Natural resources do not just run out and become products and services that people need, they need to be processed into products, and the products need to be consumed by people before there is an incentive to continue to develop natural resources. With the development of transportation, this development model has gradually expanded from a small region to the whole world. The current development model of the world can be summarized by a model that pulls resources from resource countries, transports them to processing countries, which turn them into products, and then transports them to consuming countries for consumption. Russia is the representative country of the resource countries, China is the representative country of the processing countries, and the United States is the representative country of the consuming countries. Looking at the development of the world economy in the last two decades, we can conclude that the most crucial part of this model is the consumer country, which determines the processing country as well as the resource country. This explains why the U.S. economy has been the barometer of the world economy, because in this model, the U.S. is the deciding country, and the economic situation of other countries is almost always determined by the U.S. economic situation.
Resource countries: Russia, the representative country of resource countries, Russia will do only one thing in recent years, even into the next few years, and that is to seize the pricing power of resources. In the world-wide politics, Russia will not have much voice to follow the goal of seizing the pricing power of resources, Russia will only continue to fight wars, seize the land of countries with similar resources as him, or exert influence on their regimes to make them in the resource market to keep pace with it. Why are the resources on which humanity depends for survival and development becoming cheaper and cheaper now? Because selling resources is the easiest thing to do, it does not involve the cultivation of talents, does not involve the need to establish a complete business mechanism, only the need to have resources can be, because the model is too simple, so countries with resources can engage in this activity, in order to seize the market, the usual trick is to reduce prices to get customers, in order to resource storage abundance to consume competitors, when both sides reduce prices to a certain extent is in the consumption of The oil wars in the 80s and 90s are clear examples. The easiest way to get the pricing power of resources is to have a monopoly, and after forming a monopoly, you will naturally get the pricing power of resources. For Russia, the easiest way to gain a monopoly is to go to war, to exert a substantial threat and an invisible deterrent to other countries’ political situations through war, so as to gain radiation and influence over Asian and European resource countries, and thus control the pricing power of resources in other resource countries. One day in the future, Russia will use force against Saudi Arabia and other Middle East regions, and I will not be surprised at all, because based on the current world development situation, Russia’s only way out.
Processing countries: The representative country of processing countries, China, as the intermediary of the above model, has also struggled over the years, China encountered a situation that can be said to be ten times more complex than Russia, for one of the most superficial reasons, the Chinese people can make the above judgment.
China has a large population, and individuals and society need a network to connect, and a large population means a large network of relationships between people and people, and a large network of relationships means complexity, and a layered network of relationships means great complexity, and if we can thread the needle and guide the complex network of relationships appropriately, then the power of many people will expand infinitely, but if the guidance is not appropriate, many people will become a liability. A dilemma, China to develop, first must be economic recovery, the economy does not recover, you can not reverse the continued deflationary expectations, continued deflationary expectations will seriously damage the real economy. But if the economy clearly recovers, it will bring inflationary expectations, and global inflationary expectations will bring a strong dollar and asset price volatility. The premise that there is a large bubble in the Chinese economy is the consensus, and continued inflation will puncture the bubble and jeopardize China’s debt problem. Whichever approach is chosen, it will have a very significant impact on the original network of relationships. China is now proposing a supply-side structural reform, the essence of which is to stabilize real economic expectations first and not to stimulate continued inflationary expectations with demand. The development model is to seek progress in a stable manner. In the end, China’s ultimate goal is simple, to transform from a processing country to a consumer country like the United States, the United States is bound to be reluctant to let China and it share the world’s people’s money together with the friction between the two sides in recent years are also basically on the table.
In summary, the transition period in the face of more severe pressure from all sides, China’s domestic situation is naturally not too good, first of all, talk about the vast majority of the people, no matter what structure is adopted, the people are the cornerstone to ensure national stability and stability, most of the people in recent years feel that money is more difficult to earn, the opportunity has become less, the heart seems quite unsettled, in order to become strong, the need for sacrifice, but the country’s external arm-wrestling time Domestic fairness and justice enhance, strengthen the sense of unity among the nation as well as the sense of honor should become a more important issue. I think it is a very good idea and vision to make the country a consumer country, and the people’s quality of life will be greatly improved accordingly, but in this process, with the people’s income and opportunities decreasing, the issue of internal fairness and justice will be extremely magnified, which is determined by the characteristics of the Chinese people. Thousands of years of Chinese history tell us that the Chinese people have always suffered from unevenness rather than scarcity, and the vast masses react several times more to inequality than to scarcity. Based on such historical lessons, in the process of realizing the dream of becoming a consumer state, we must ensure that the people can fully understand the intentions and purposes of the state and rally their confidence. The best tool to achieve these purposes is fairness and justice.
In my opinion, the first thing to achieve equity is to cool down the real estate industry, which has now become a tool to widen the gap between the rich and the poor, similar to the process of land annexation in ancient times. Second, the focus will be on distribution reform. The central government’s policy holds that innovation is the key to achieving structural transformation of China’s economy, and I believe that innovation can be strongly supported only by first greatly releasing national vitality through the two main models mentioned above.
Innovation is dependent on the pondering of millions of people after releasing their vitality. Innovation is not a simple linear function, or a superposition of several simple linear rules. The path of innovation has never been presented in a clear way in history, in the autobiographies of people who have made significant innovations, and no one can know when they can have a flash of light and create an innovation point with this. Since there is no fixed way to achieve innovation, the key to solve the problem of innovation is to increase the population base of innovation, so the key to innovation is not to rely on some universities, not to rely on some research institutions, and not to rely on some people, but to rely on millions of Chinese people who have released their intelligence and vitality. How can we make more Chinese people unleash their vitality in innovation? That naturally starts with the real estate and distribution system, so that people can have more energy and interest in places where they once skimped on betting their eyes.
The current situation is that most young people are living as leeks, just trying to get the job done every day, with the mentality of muddling through, with the idea that with my own efforts, I can’t afford to buy a house no matter what, and I can’t work harder than having a good father. Most young people, as long as they can mix, will never take the initiative to suffer to improve themselves, because they are inappropriately given the value of something to kill hope, kill the motivation to move forward. The excessive publicity of the importance of real estate and the excessive speculation of value have even seriously affected the national desire to reproduce, and China has gradually stepped into the early features of the low desire society that Japan is currently experiencing, which is a very fatal blow to a country that once had labor-intensive industries as the pillar of development. If the transition fails, no major breakthroughs are made in technological innovation, and there is no more labor force to succeed the labor-intensive industries as the pillar of the economy, China’s economy will enter a sustained depression. The real industry suffers serious damage and China’s bubble economy faces the risk of an immediate and uncontrollable hard landing.
To sum up, the strategy and expectation of national transformation is correct, but I think the key measures need to be adjusted a little. If the higher demands for fairness and justice are not met and the gap between the rich and the poor is further expanded through the real estate bubble, most people will have less confidence in the reform expectations, and it will be difficult to firmly implement the national policies and measures, increasing the potential risks of national transformation.
Consumer countries: The only consumer country, the United States, the United States currently has to do things more simply, first of all, the United States to prevent the fixed risk of domestic economic development (capitalism fixed will appear economic crisis), while suppressing the emergence of a second consumer country (China).
The reason why people all over the world feel that Americans live well, at least better than people in their own countries, is that many countries around the world now continue to buy U.S. treasury bonds and increase their foreign exchange reserves in dollars. The world’s wealth is flowing into the United States, the world’s countries have a common idea, is to let the American people consumption, even in such a way to send money to the United States consumption, because only the American people consumption, to drive the development of the economy of the resource countries and processing countries in the model I said above. The world’s money to the United States, the United States will naturally live well, and over time, this country gradually become all the talent to aspire to the place, the top talent from all countries to that place, and gradually formed a talent concentration effect. The effect brings benefits, and the agglomeration benefits brought by talents are much higher than the benefits brought by selling resources and processing products.
Therefore, in the upstream of all the resource countries and processing countries can not fully unite, each into the prisoner’s dilemma, the United States of America’s supremacy will always be maintained, but the good news is that China as long as the adoption of appropriate policies to stimulate the vitality and confidence of all Chinese people, catch up with the United States is only a matter of time, the day the wisdom of the people is stimulated, that is, China to catch up with the United States of America’s beginning.
